The question has been floating around for a while...
Once we got past the very real drama of Fox’s claims against Watchmen, the question of what kind of drama the movie would turn out to be.
My fear has been that Zack Snyder, who showed a lot of promise in rethinking genre with his Dawn of the Dead remake, would do much as he did on 300… literally translating the intense visual experience without really making it into a movie. Thing is, 300 was a much more simplistic piece of material with a clearly defined structure. Watchmen… long, deep, and complex.
My concerns have, so far, been confirmed by most of the information coming my way. Eric Kohn, who seems to be an enthusiast about the material, walked away with a number of doubts after seeing a 15 minute footage presentation at NY’s ComicCon. And there are industry friends-of kind of people who you would expect to have been shown the film by now who have not been shown the film. And the few who have actually seen the film… mixed negative to very negative… particularly in an area where Mr. Kohn offered concern, the extreme violence and another where he did not, the enormous length of the film.
Finally, there is the lack of a screening schedule from WB at what is now a late date for a movie that is complete. We’re under a month away, folks. And if you recall, 300 premiered in public at Berlin a month and a day before release in 2007. It also started screening in the U.S around then. As for Watchmen, the studio assures me that the film will be screened before week of release…. that’s as much of a commitment as they will make.
I hope the movie is right and all of my concerns are wrong. I really, really do. I hear Jackie Earle Haley is terrific as Rorschach. Yay. The women of the film, especially in age make-up… not so much.
I know I will get a lot of anger in response to this post. So be it. I am not actually all that excited about pre-staging the film in any way. But as one of two pre-summer releases actually targeting more than $150 million domestic, not to mention all the business-side drama, I am really interested in seeing where the anticipation is out there.
I was at Sundance when the final deal was signed between Fox and WB et al, so I didn’t peg the cash settlement ($5m - $10m, depending on who you believe) and anywhere between 5% and 8.5% of rentals and all other net revenue (not to mention future projects based on the material).
So... rough estimations all... if Watchmen does the same as 300, $456 million worldwide, Fox takes home about $30 million in pure profit in theatrical and there will about $20m each for distribution fees for WB and Paramount while Legendary waits for post-theatrical.
What, these days, looks like about $200 million in post-theatrical net revenue would go about $15 million to Fox, $90 million to Legendary, and about $45 million each for Paramount and WB. So… Fox ends up with a return of about $50 million on its $300,000 investment, but everyone else gets healthy too.
Of course, if the film "just" does $300 million worldwide, Fox is looking at “just” $35 million or so… but the film goes into post-theatrical with a deficit of about $100 million. Legendary is looking at about $40 million ultimate profit. WB and Paramount in for about $35 million each profit (inlcuding their distribution fees).
Breakeven is probably, presuming the post-theatrical dollars, about $200 million worldwide. In that scenerio, Fox still walks away with about $20 million.
Please Note: All of these numbers are subject to the details of contracts between WB, Paramount, and Legendary of which I do not have the details. My biggest question is the size of and details of the Paramount investment and whether there is some part of their agreement that puts the Fox dollars against WB and not Paramount. There is also, of course, budget questions, but I am being conservative, so if the number is significantly different, it will be because there is less profit to be had, not more.
Anyway… my sense is that the movie will play pretty well in GeekVille because it is so loyal to the book. And if that’s enough for you, you will likely be happy. Congrats.
As for the rest of us… we’ll wait and see. And no doubt, when we do see, we will wait another week or more before we are allowed to write about the film.
You know, there is nothing better in film than a pleasant surprise. So maybe lowering the bar is a good thing. Let’s hope so.
Read the complete post at http://www.mcnblogs.com/thehotblog/archives/2009/02/watching_the_wa_1.html