I don't want to spend too much time on this, but...
All four acting slots that won BAFTA the last two years won Oscars.
In both of those last two years, only one of the four slots was really a surprise of any kind... Tilda last year and Alan Arkin the year before. Huzzah - even though guessing the Oscars is not really the point - for them.
Before that, they were about .500 predicting acting wins.
No other categories are reliable in any way.
Thank you for your momentary attention.
Read the complete post at http://www.mcnblogs.com/thehotblog/archives/2009/02/bafta_as_predic.html