I started to write this as a response to a petulant comment on another entry, but the issue seemed worthy of its own space (even if people in here really don't comment on the strike for whatever reasons).
Figuring out months ago how the strike would play out was not a magic trick. I t was simple logic. The Deal was always going to go onto the table soon after the force majeur period was clear. The start of a strike pretty much assured what many of us thought would be a month, then six weeks, and what turned out to be 2 months and a couple of weeks to negotiate the details.
WGA was so rageful that AMPTP tried to punish them by doing The Deal via DGA and giving them credit instead of WGA. Shitty.
But this is now water under the bridge. It is time for the perspective questions to start being considered.
1. What would have happened had WGA not struck in Nov?
No one knows, except the AMPTP. Would they have dragged their feet until WGA did strike so they could do force majeur, bring in DGA for a deal, and position SAG with 2 setlements so there would be no SAG strike? Could be. It could have been exactly the same scenario delayed a few months. The question then would have been, "If a strike was going to be forced and if the deal was going to be the same in the end, when was the best strategic place for WGA to strike?"
2. What would have happened if WGA waited on SAG's strike date?
Some feel that AMPTP would have locked out the writers at some point. I don't. I think the goal has always been to do the deal "they" were willing to do and to have no more than one strike.
Would we have spent the summer in a strike, talking about the loss of the fall TV season and the threat to Summer 2009's movies?
3. How would the industry have responded to attempts to jam the 2008 fall TV season into the working period that is usually spent wrapping up Spring? Would films meant to shoot next summer or even late spring get aborted in anticipation of a SAG/WGA strike?
Would WGA support have meant much to SAG's leverage or would everyone all just been out of work at the same time, making the whole thing so much more dramatic?
4. Would a strategic offer to work through Feb 15, with the implicit threat to shut down The Oscars and pilot season and 2009 movies if a deal could not be struck in the 3.5 month period of negotiations as the WGA continued to work on good faith have been effective?
I expect the most extreme WGAers to be unhappy with the deal they are offered. How can it not feel like a slap in the face after all that rhetoric? It's not personal... it's math. But all politics are local and it's very personal when you feel you have skin in the game. I get that. I just won't linger in it... which has some people thinking I am anti-WGA in all this. I can only continue to point to what I have written and say, obviously, I am not. I am also not a flame-throwing, unthinking pawn... or, in respect to striking writers, I have no need to lead with my chin as a negotiating tactic. (I would put all the "not so fast" stuff and pickets this week in that category. If anyone really thinks the Negotiating Committee is going to give up points because they think member resolve is slipping, they are deluded. As things go today, negotiating for another month is no worse than settling today if the deal isn't right. The NC has proven their mettle already... perhaps too much so.)
Of course, no one knows what these deals with the three major guilds will mean to the bottom line and won't for years. Will reruns be relegated to the web? Will DVD sales of TV shows remain strong? Will pay-tv networks overwhelm both delivery ideas?
Personally, I don't think these union deals will mean anything to how the studios choose to move forward... just lines on a spread sheet. The money involved is much bigger than residuals for all unions combined. Studios will go where they see the money... period.
This contract may seem great or misbegotten by the end of its run. And that is pretty much overly generous or unfair to the current negotiators as well. The great step forward for the Hollywood guilds would be ongoing negotiations over new technology that allows for annual steps that work for both sides. It is not how it’s been done in the past… but over the next two decades, it would be the way to do it… as in a few of the sports leagues. There is enough to go around. As in the end of all negotiations, there should be a little pain on both sides in the end… just a little… and a sense of comforted resolve as well.
Onward.
Read the complete post at http://www.mcnblogs.com/thehotblog/archives/2008/02/wga_strike_the.html